Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are currently barred from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with commercial transit suspended following a brief, failed reopening. The strait remains effectively closed as Iran continues to warn vessels to stay within its waters, while Tehran has implied it may have laid mines in the channel. This blockade threatens a route that once carried roughly 20% of global oil and natural gas, sending US gas prices up by over 30% in March.

Historically, traffic has hovered near a standstill for weeks amid the ongoing conflict, with volumes well below 10% of normal levels. Even as some countries secure apparent safe-passage agreements, normal commercial traffic is not expected to return quickly, and the real daily count likely sits between 10 and 15 ships. The market’s implied 8% probability for a return to normal by July 7 aligns with this underdog status, yet the consensus may be too pessimistic if recent climbs to the highest levels since the war’s early days signal a shift in Iran’s posture.

Traders must watch for announcements regarding US-Iran peace negotiations, as President Trump has stipulated the strait’s reopening as a prerequisite for any ceasefire. With minimal progress and no resolution, a declared naval blockade looms, but any sudden shift in Iran’s toll policies or safe-route maps could alter the trajectory. Recent data from NBC News confirms that actual figures may be higher than reported, as some ships alter GPS tracking, suggesting the 60-ship threshold for IMF PortWatch might be reached sooner than the crowd assumes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.