Trump out as President by May 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump's continued tenure as President through 31 May 2026 is priced at 100% implied probability by the crowd, meaning zero expectation of resignation or removal before that date. The market settles "Yes" only if Trump permanently leaves office—whether through resignation, impeachment conviction, the 25th Amendment, or death—with any announcement triggering immediate resolution regardless of effective date.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. No sitting US President has been removed via impeachment conviction; Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 to avoid that outcome. The 25th Amendment has never been invoked to remove a President against their will. Gerald Ford's succession in 1974 and Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 race in July 2024 both occurred outside the presidency itself. Trump survived two impeachments during his first term (2019–2021) without conviction. The current 0% pricing reflects the structural difficulty of removal: conviction requires a two-thirds Senate supermajority, whilst resignation requires Trump's voluntary action—neither scenario commands market credibility given Republican Senate control and Trump's demonstrated political resilience.

Catalysts centre on legal jeopardy and health. Trump faces multiple criminal cases with varying trial schedules; conviction in any trial could theoretically influence removal calculations, though criminal conviction alone does not trigger constitutional removal. The 2026 midterm elections in November sit outside this market's window but will shape political dynamics beforehand. Trump's age (78 at market settlement) and any serious health event would represent tail-risk scenarios. Markets typically underprice low-probability, high-impact events; the 0% crowd probability may not fully account for unexpected political or medical developments over an 18-month horizon.

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.