Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israel’s legislative elections are set for 27 October 2026, with a new bill potentially triggering a snap election as early as September, which would immediately determine the next Prime Minister once formally sworn in. The market currently assigns a 36% implied probability to the proposition that Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next leader, positioning him as the favourite despite growing internal and external pressure to oust him. Historical precedents show that Israeli Prime Ministers often retain power through fragmented coalitions even when polling dips, yet the 2026 cycle is distinct due to the Knesset’s unanimous dissolution vote in May, a rare catalyst that has not occurred in recent decades and significantly elevates the risk of an early exit for Netanyahu[3].

Traders should monitor the finalisation of snap election dates, with the *Jerusalem Post* citing a probable window between 8 September and 20 October, alongside Netanyahu’s official campaign announcements and coalition negotiations[3]. Recent polling from Lazar for *Maariv* (2 May 2026) shows Naftali Bennett leading Netanyahu in preferred Prime Minister ratings at 46% versus 41%, suggesting the consensus may be undervaluing Bennett as an underdog with significant contrarian value[2]. While the crowd on Polymarket assigns only a 13% chance to Bennett, the structural shift toward an early election and Bennett’s polling lead indicate the true value spot may lie with the challenger rather than the incumbent, especially if the snap election accelerates the political realignment[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.