Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Islamic Republic would need to lose effective governing control before the end of May for this market to go “Yes”. At a 1% implied probability, the crowd is treating regime collapse as a tail event and the base case remains continuity under the clerical-security state. That is consistent with the usual pattern in authoritarian systems: even after battlefield shocks, sanctions, or leadership losses, regimes often survive by leaning on the IRGC, emergency decrees, patronage, and succession management. The relevant historical comparator is not quick collapse but prolonged stress followed by adaptation, which is why the market is priced as a very deep underdog.

The main consensus risk is that Iran is under severe strain: Brookings has pointed to economic collapse, protest pressure, regional weakness, and succession uncertainty, while ISW said on 6 May that Iranian officials were preparing for economic instability that could trigger domestic unrest. The contrarian case is that these pressures could still produce a sudden break if unrest, elite defection, or a leadership vacuum coincides with military or security setbacks. Traders should watch for any credible reports of a succession crisis around the Supreme Leader, mass protests spreading beyond localised unrest, or signs that the IRGC is losing cohesion. Recent reporting from *The New York Times* and other outlets has also kept alive the possibility of renewed US-Israeli pressure, but negotiations appear to be moving as well, with JD Vance saying on 20 May that there has been “significant progress”; that mix usually favours a hold, not a collapse, before month-end.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.