Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Senate is still short of the finish line on a reconciliation bill before the 31 May deadline, and the market’s 0% implied probability makes “Yes” the clear outsider. That said, the procedural path is not empty: both chambers have already adopted the same budget resolution, and Senate committees have tabled reconciliation text with the stated aim of passing a narrower immigration-enforcement package. Comparable budget-reconciliation pushes can move quickly once party leadership has locked in the votes, but they also fail abruptly if the text changes or if the chambers cannot align on the same version in time. On balance, the consensus still treats passage as the favourite outcome, so the main contrarian angle is that a late whip operation can overcome the calendar if the bill remains tightly framed.

The near-term catalysts are committee mark-ups, formal floor scheduling and any sign that House and Senate negotiators have settled the spending numbers. Reuters and other recent coverage have pointed to leadership targeting final passage before 1 June, with committees working to complete their recommendations and leadership wanting an end-of-month vote. The key dependency is not just Senate action on its own, but identical passage in both chambers before the window closes; any amendment ping-pong, scoring issue from the CBO, or Republican defection would be enough to knock the bill off schedule. For traders, the value sits in whether the current zero price reflects a genuine procedural dead end or simply an overreaction to a very tight timetable.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.