SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

SpaceX’s Starship Flight Test 12 is the next integrated launch of the programme’s newest vehicle stack, with the company’s own page and recent coverage pointing to a first attempt from Pad 2 at Starbase, using Booster 19 and Ship 39. At a crowd-implied 0% YES, the market is effectively pricing the event as a non-starter, but that is only sensible if the contract resolves on launch actually occurring before the settlement window closes. In comparable Starship markets, the “favourite” has usually been the simplest operational outcome: a launch attempt, not a perfect mission. That matters because SpaceX has repeatedly turned near-term pads and vehicle roll-outs into actual countdowns even after delays, so a zero price can be vulnerable if the only question is whether Flight 12 gets off the ground.

The main catalyst is schedule rather than technical perfection. SpaceX’s launch page has already shown a 90-minute window, and Space.com reported on 20 May that the attempt slipped again after a last-minute hold, with the company then targeting no earlier than 21 May from Starbase. That makes the consensus read clear: traders are leaning hard towards continued delay or scrub risk, especially with a debut V3 vehicle, a new pad, and weather sensitivity on the Gulf Coast. The value angle is contrarian only if the market settles on any lift-off before 31 January 2026; if the contract needs a specific nominal date or a broader mission-success condition, the probability is far lower.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.