Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

57% odds: Next Prime Minister of Serbia? | Whowillwin2026

Name: Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Start: 2026-07-01T15:56:53.029Z
End: 2028-07-01T03:59:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	57%	43%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	See live odds →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	57%	43%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	See live odds →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	See live odds →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	See live odds →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Aleksandar Vučić	57%
Person C	50%
Person D	50%
Person E	50%
Person F	50%
Person G	50%
Person H	50%
Person I	50%
Person J	50%
Person K	50%
Person L	50%
Person M	50%
Person N	50%
Person O	50%
Person P	50%
Person Q	50%
Person R	50%
Person S	50%
Person T	50%
Person U	50%
Person V	50%
Person W	50%
Person X	50%
Person Y	50%
Person Z	50%
Person AA	50%
Person AB	50%
Person AC	50%
Person AD	50%
Person AE	50%
Person AF	50%
Person AG	50%
Person AH	50%
Person AI	50%
Person AJ	50%
Person AK	50%
Person AL	50%
Person AM	50%
Person AN	50%
Person AO	50%
Person AP	50%
Person AQ	50%
Person AR	50%
Other	50%
Ilija Srdanović	22%
Vladan Đokić	4%
Stefan Krkobabić	2%
Ana Brnabić	1%
Dragan Đilas	1%
Ivica Dačić	0%
Miloš Vučević	0%
Đuro Macut	0%
Branimir Jovanović	0%

Market context

Market consensus: 57% chance of next prime minister of serbia?. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individua…

Methodology

We track Next Prime Minister of Serbia? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?: Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?: Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?: A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Do I need to KYC for this market?: On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?: The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporterand

Chris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Next Prime Minister of Serbia? on Who Will Win 2026

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