Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-third of seaborne traded oil passes, has experienced significant traffic disruption since late 2023 owing to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping and subsequent regional tensions. This market asks whether daily transit calls will recover to a 7-day moving average of 60 or above by year-end 2026—a threshold that would signal normalisation after months of rerouting, delays, and insurance premium spikes. The crowd is pricing this at 76% YES, suggesting broad confidence in recovery within the settlement window.

Historical precedent offers mixed signals. The 2019 tanker attacks and 2020 Soleimani assassination both disrupted strait traffic severely, yet recovery took between six and eighteen months once political tensions eased. The current disruption differs in that it stems from a non-state actor with sustained operational capability rather than a single geopolitical shock. Pre-disruption baseline transit calls typically ranged between 65 and 75 daily arrivals; reaching 60 represents a modest threshold, roughly 80–90% of historical norms, which should be achievable even under partial recovery scenarios.

Traders should monitor three variables closely: Houthi attack frequency and any ceasefire negotiations (Reuters and shipping industry reports suggest attacks have plateaued rather than escalated since mid-2024); insurance and transit cost trajectories, which determine rerouting economics; and port capacity in alternative routes such as the Suez Canal, which faces its own congestion pressures. A sustained three-month period of low attack frequency would likely trigger rapid rerouting reversal. The 76% probability leaves modest value for contrarian NO positions if regional tensions reignite or if IMF Portwatch data lags behind actual traffic normalisation.

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.