IR Iran vs. New Zealand - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran and New Zealand meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 15 June, with the match kicking off at 9:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 11% implied probability, reflecting the difficulty of predicting a specific scoreline rather than match result alone. Settlement captures only the 90-minute regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.

Historical World Cup group-stage matches between nations of comparable strength and experience show exact-score predictions cluster heavily around low-scoring results. Iran has qualified for four World Cups but typically operates as a defensive unit; New Zealand has appeared in three tournaments and rarely features in high-scoring affairs. Group-stage matches involving these sides have produced 1–0, 0–0, and 2–1 outcomes in recent cycles. The 11% probability suggests the market is pricing roughly one-in-nine odds that any single scoreline materialises, which aligns with typical distribution across 15–20 plausible outcomes in such fixtures.

Traders should monitor team news closer to June, particularly Iran's squad depth and New Zealand's injury status, as both affect attacking output. Fixture congestion in the group stage—Iran and New Zealand's positioning within their bracket—will determine whether either side prioritises possession or defensive shape. Recent qualifying form matters: Iran's performance in Asian qualifying and New Zealand's playoff route will signal attacking intent. Venue conditions in North America and any late tactical shifts announced by either federation could shift expected goal totals, moving value between low-scoring and mid-range outcomes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.