Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Quito: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Quito: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Quito: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Quito: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Quito: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Quito: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Quito: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Quito: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Quito: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Quito: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Quito: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Quito: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Quito: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Quito: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Quito: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of quito: felipe meligeni alves vs rodrigo pacheco. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Felipe Meligeni Alves and Rodrigo Pacheco in the Quito, originally scheduled for July 3, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
We track Quito: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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