Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, cincinnati open, qualification: luca van assche vs dusan lajovic stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Dusan Lajovic in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. Thi…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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