Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 71% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 65% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5 | 57% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse | 55% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 Winner | 54% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 Winner | 52% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse Game Spread +/-0.5 | 52% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 23.5 | 46% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 32% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 30% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, winston-salem open: arthur fery vs ignacio buse stands at 71% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fery and Ignacio Buse in the Winston-Salem Open, originally scheduled for August 29, 2026 at 4:00PM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
This page reviews Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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