Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch Game Spread +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open, qualification atp: vilius gaubas vs kilian feldbausch stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Vilius Gaubas and Kilian Feldbausch in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This …
Methodology
This page reviews US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian … on Who Will Win 2026
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →