Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy Game Spread +/-0.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open, qualification atp: moise kouame vs nishesh basavareddy. This market refers to the tennis match between Moise Kouame and Nishesh Basavareddy in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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