Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz Match O/U 23.5 | 99% |
| National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz Match O/U 21.5 | 87% |
| National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz Match O/U 22.5 | 87% |
| National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | 72% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 6% |
| National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 2% |
| National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz. This market refers to the tennis match between Botic van de Zandschulp and Hubert Hurkacz in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 7, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
We track National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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