Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 79% |
| O/U 37.5 | 73% |
| O/U 39.5 | 69% |
| New Mexico State O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| O/U 41.5 | 63% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 61% |
| Spread -0.5 | 58% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 58% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston | 57% |
| O/U 43.5 | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| New Mexico State O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| O/U 45.5 | 54% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 11.5 | 54% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 11.5 | 54% |
| 1H Moneyline | 54% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 47.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| New Mexico State O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| O/U 49.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| Sam Houston O/U 23.5 | 42% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Sam Houston O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| O/U 51.5 | 36% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| O/U 53.5 | 33% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 33% |
| Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 29% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 29% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 28% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 28% |
| O/U 55.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 27% |
| Sam Houston 1H O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 27% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 27% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| O/U 57.5 | 24% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Sam Houston O/U 26.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| O/U 59.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| Spread -16.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| O/U 61.5 | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| O/U 63.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 65.5 | 11% |
| Sam Houston O/U 35.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| O/U 67.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| O/U 69.5 | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 6% |
| O/U 73.5 | 5% |
Market context
Market consensus: 79% chance of new mexico state vs. sam houston. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game between New Mexico State and Sam Houston, scheduled for October 21 at 8:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "New Mexico State" if New Mexico …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $151K.
Methodology
This page reviews New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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