Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 34.5 | 93% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 87% |
| Toledo O/U 20.5 | 87% |
| O/U 40.5 | 84% |
| O/U 30.5 | 79% |
| O/U 32.5 | 78% |
| O/U 36.5 | 77% |
| O/U 38.5 | 76% |
| Toledo O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| O/U 42.5 | 73% |
| O/U 46.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 70% |
| O/U 48.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| O/U 44.5 | 64% |
| Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| O/U 50.5 | 61% |
| San Diego State O/U 20.5 | 60% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| O/U 52.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 54.5 | 49% |
| Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| Spread -8.5 | 39% |
| O/U 58.5 | 39% |
| Spread -9.5 | 37% |
| O/U 60.5 | 37% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 34% |
| Spread -12.5 | 34% |
| Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| O/U 62.5 | 33% |
| O/U 66.5 | 32% |
| O/U 56.5 | 31% |
| O/U 68.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| Spread -11.5 | 30% |
| Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| O/U 64.5 | 25% |
| Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| O/U 70.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
Market context
The San Diego State vs. Toledo prediction market currently prices this outcome at 93% YES. In the upcoming college football game between San Diego State and Toledo, scheduled for September 26 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego State" if San Diego State win the game. This …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $764K.
Methodology
This page reviews San Diego State vs. Toledo across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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