Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| GKS GieKSa Katowice O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| O/U 1.5 | 74% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv O/U 0.5 | 69% |
| GKS GieKSa Katowice 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 57% |
| Both Teams to Score | 56% |
| O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| GKS GieKSa Katowice 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| GKS GieKSa Katowice O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 28% |
| O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| GKS GieKSa Katowice (-1.5) | 22% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 21% |
| GKS GieKSa Katowice 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| GKS GieKSa Katowice O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Team to Advance | 17% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 15% |
| GKS GieKSa Katowice 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv (-1.5) | 10% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| GKS GieKSa Katowice (-2.5) | 8% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv (-2.5) | 3% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 93% YES probability for GKS GieKSa Katowice vs. MH Hapoel Tel Aviv - More Markets. More markets for the UEFA Europa Conference League game, scheduled for August 12 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews GKS GieKSa Katowice vs. MH Hapoel Tel Aviv - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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