Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Who Will Win 2026 Pick polygram.ink |
5% | 95% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Who Will Win 2026 → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
5% | 95% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Who Will Win 2026 → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Who Will Win 2026 → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Who Will Win 2026 → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Who Will Win 2026 → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Who Will Win 2026.
Active sub-markets
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-6.5) vs against All authority (+6.5) | 5% RUSTEC | 95% against All authority |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% Over | 0% Under |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: against All authority (-3.5) vs RUSTEC (+3.5) | 0% against All authority | 100% RUSTEC |
| Map Handicap: aAa (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) | 0% against All authority | 100% RUSTEC |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: against All authority (-3.5) vs RUSTEC (+3.5) | 100% against All authority | 0% RUSTEC |
Market context
Market consensus: 5% chance of counter-strike: against all authority vs rustec (bo3) - european pro league series 7 group c. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Elimination match between against All authority and RUSTEC in the European Pro League Series 7 Group C, initially scheduled for June 10 at …
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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