Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Guara Esports (-3.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-6.5) vs Guara Esports (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PCY (-1.5) vs Guara Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-3.5) vs Guara Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-3.5) vs Guara Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-3.5) vs Guara Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-6.5) vs Guara Esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Guara Esports (-3.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Guara Esports (-6.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Guara Esports (-9.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-6.5) vs Guara Esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Counter-Strike: Guara Esports vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Guara Esports and Procyon Gaming in the CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 3 at 12:00PM ET. This marke…
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: Guara Esports vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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