Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Color (-3.5) vs Metizport (+3.5) | 90% |
| Match Winner | 52% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Color (-6.5) vs Metizport (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Metizport (-3.5) vs Color (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MZP (-1.5) vs Color (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Metizport (-3.5) vs Color (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Metizport (-6.5) vs Color (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: Color (-1.5) vs Metizport (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Metizport (-9.5) vs Color (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Metizport (-12.5) vs Color (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of counter-strike: metizport vs color (bo3) - esl challenger league europe cup #4 playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 2 match between Metizport and Color in the ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 20, 2026 …
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Color (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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