Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 96% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 95% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 81% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 66% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 34% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 33% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 33% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 27% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 27% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 27% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 26% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 26% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 26% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Raphinha: 4+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Raphinha: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Raphinha: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Raphinha: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 96%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Norway, scheduled for July 5 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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