Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 65% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 60% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 47% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 47% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Yeremi Pino: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 45% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 45% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 40% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 37% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 36% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 33% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 32% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 32% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 31% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 25% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 25% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 25% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 24% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 24% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 24% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 23% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 20% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 18% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 92% YES probability for Spain vs. Argentina - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Argentina, scheduled for July 19 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Spain vs. Argentina - Player Props on Who Will Win 2026
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →