Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots | 98% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots | 86% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 68% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots | 67% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 65% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 62% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 41% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 41% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 40% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 38% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 36% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 35% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 35% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 34% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 33% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 31% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 31% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 29% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 29% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 27% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 27% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 26% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The France vs. Spain - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 98% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Spain, scheduled for July 14 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews France vs. Spain - Player Props across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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