Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Dominik Livaković: 2+ saves | 76% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals + assists | 71% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals + assists | 68% |
| Ivor Pandur: 2+ saves | 65% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots | 51% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ shots | 50% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots | 50% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots | 50% |
| João Félix: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Toni Fruk: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Trincão: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ivor Pandur: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Ivor Pandur: 5+ saves | 50% |
| José Sá: 2+ saves | 50% |
| José Sá: 3+ saves | 50% |
| José Sá: 4+ saves | 50% |
| José Sá: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Dominik Livaković: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Dominik Livaković: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Dominik Livaković: 5+ saves | 50% |
| João Félix: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists | 46% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots | 41% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | 35% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots | 34% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals | 31% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots on target | 26% |
| João Félix: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Petar Musa: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Toni Fruk: 5+ shots | 16% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots on target | 15% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals | 13% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Igor Matanović: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| João Félix: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Trincão: 1+ goals | 10% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Petar Musa: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Ivor Pandur: 4+ saves | 9% |
| Trincão: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Trincão: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Trincão: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Igor Matanović: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals | 1% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Portugal vs. Croatia - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 100%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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Trade Portugal vs. Croatia - Player Props on Who Will Win 2026
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