Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 100% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 99% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 94% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 92% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 82% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 76% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 59% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 58% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 57% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 55% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 54% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 54% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 53% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 52% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 52% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 46% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 19% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 15% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 match between the United States and Belgium, scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on 6 July in Seattle, with Folarin Balogun now available for the US side. Historical precedents for World Cup knockout games featuring a strong attacking team against a defensively vulnerable opponent, such as Belgium’s 2018 Round of 16 clash with Japan, often produce high-scoring outcomes where both teams find the net. In such fixtures, the consensus probability of 14% YES for the player prop market sits below the implied likelihood suggested by recent form, where experts like those at Covers.com back the Over 2.5 goals at -150 and Both Teams to Score at -170, indicating the market may be undervaluing goal-scoring potential.
Traders should monitor the confirmed starting lineups and in-game possession shifts, particularly if Belgium dominates early possession while the US creates transition chances, a scenario that historically elevates live over 2.5 probabilities. Recent analysis from RotoWire highlights Leandro Trossard as a key value spot for player shots on target, with his over 0.5 shots priced at -125, while Action Network experts note Belgium’s poor defensive record as a catalyst for multiple goals. The settlement window ending 7 July 2026 requires attention to any late injury updates or tactical adjustments, as these dependencies directly influence player prop outcomes in high-stakes knockout football.
Methodology
We track United States vs. Belgium - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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Trade United States vs. Belgium - Player Props on Who Will Win 2026
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