United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The United States men’s national team, co-hosts of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, face Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 on 1 July 2026 at 8:00 PM ET in Seattle. This knockout match, decided solely by 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, sees the USA as clear favourites, with bookmakers pricing them at -185 for a win and -255 for a -1.5 spread[1]. Bosnia, playing in just their second World Cup, are listed at +750 to win outright, reflecting their underdog status[1].

Historically, the USA and Bosnia have met three times since 2013, with the Americans winning two matches and scoring five goals total, averaging 1.7 goals per game[7]. Comparable knockout cases involving co-hosts in recent World Cups show a tendency for home nations to outperform European outsiders in early rounds, especially when backed by crowd energy. The current 6% implied probability for an exact score outcome suggests the market is pricing in a narrow, low-scoring affair, yet recent form—USA’s 2-0 win over Australia and 3-2 loss to Turkey—indicates volatility that could favour higher-scoring exact outcomes like 3-1 or 2-1[1].

Traders should monitor final squad announcements and any late tactical shifts from Mauricio Pochettino, as USA’s confidence and identity have been highlighted in pre-match previews[2][3]. A key catalyst is Bosnia’s physical style, which may test the USA’s defensive line; one analyst leans toward Bosnia +1.5 on the spread, citing value at even money plus 100[2]. With both teams likely to score and USA expected to strike first, the 4-2 or 3-1 exact scores may offer contrarian value against the consensus leaning toward 2-1 or 1-0[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.