Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 94% |
| United States O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| Team to Advance | 83% |
| O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| United States 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| United States O/U 1.5 | 64% |
| United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| O/U 2.5 | 55% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score | 46% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| United States (-1.5) | 45% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| United States O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| United States 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 33% |
| O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 26% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 25% |
| United States (-2.5) | 24% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 24% |
| United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 22% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 16% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| United States (-3.5) | 11% |
| O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 7% |
| United States (-4.5) | 4% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| O/U 6.5 | 3% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 3% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) | 2% |
| United States (-5.5) | 2% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina (-3.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) | 0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina (-4.5) | 0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, united states vs. bosnia and herzegovina - more markets stands at 94% likelihood according to current market consensus. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 1 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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