Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 81% |
| S.Y. Noh | 50% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 44% |
| Tom Kim | 44% |
| Maverick McNealy | 43% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 39% |
| Jackson Koivun | 36% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 32% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 31% |
| Mac Meissner | 31% |
| Jake Knapp | 30% |
| Ben Kohles | 30% |
| Pierceson Coody | 29% |
| Jackson Suber | 28% |
| Johnny Keefer | 27% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 27% |
| Casey Jarvis | 27% |
| Keith Mitchell | 26% |
| Michael Brennan | 26% |
| Brian Harman | 26% |
| Corey Conners | 25% |
| Gary Woodland | 25% |
| Benjamin James | 25% |
| Max McGreevy | 25% |
| William Mouw | 24% |
| Max Homa | 23% |
| Sam Stevens | 23% |
| Tony Finau | 22% |
| Max Greyserman | 22% |
| Michael Kim | 22% |
| Zac Blair | 22% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 21% |
| Kevin Yu | 21% |
| Beau Hossler | 21% |
| John Parry | 21% |
| Lucas Glover | 21% |
| Zach Bauchou | 21% |
| Ricky Castillo | 20% |
| Steven Fisk | 20% |
| Keita Nakajima | 20% |
| Doug Ghim | 19% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 19% |
| Rico Hoey | 19% |
| Lee Hodges | 19% |
| Davis Thompson | 18% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 18% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 18% |
| Taylor Pendrith | 17% |
| Taylor Moore | 17% |
| Andrew Putnam | 17% |
| Denny McCarthy | 17% |
| Seamus Power | 17% |
| Takumi Kanaya | 17% |
| Chris Kirk | 17% |
| Austin Smotherman | 17% |
| Kevin Roy | 17% |
| Preston Stout | 16% |
| Jesper Svensson | 16% |
| Matt Kuchar | 16% |
| Joel Dahmen | 16% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 14% |
| Hao-Tong Li | 14% |
| Ze-Cheng Dou | 14% |
| Austin Eckroat | 14% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 14% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 13% |
| Billy Horschel | 13% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 13% |
| Tom Hoge | 13% |
| David Lipsky | 13% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 12% |
| A.J. Ewart | 12% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 12% |
| Chad Ramey | 12% |
| Karl Vilips | 12% |
| Aaron Wise | 12% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 11% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 11% |
| Garrick Higgo | 11% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 11% |
| Luke Clanton | 10% |
| David Skinns | 10% |
| Chandler Phillips | 10% |
| Lanto Griffin | 10% |
| Ryder Cowan | 9% |
| Pontus Nyholm | 9% |
| Trace Crowe | 9% |
| Adam Hadwin | 9% |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 8% |
| Nick Dunlap | 8% |
| Harry Higgs | 8% |
| Mark Hubbard | 8% |
| Neal Shipley | 7% |
| Vince Whaley | 7% |
| Hayden Springer | 6% |
| Cameron Champ | 6% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 6% |
| Gordon Sargent | 5% |
| Luke List | 5% |
| Jason Day | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 81% YES probability for PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 3M Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not anno…
Methodology
This page reviews PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 on Who Will Win 2026
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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