National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet

Platform comparison

Market context

Rafael Jodar against Corentin Moutet is priced as a clear Jodar lean, with the market at **73% YES** on Jodar. That sits broadly in line with outside models and previews, which cluster in the mid-to-high 70s for Jodar, while Tennis.com lists him at 81% and String Tension at 74.2%. [3][9] The consensus therefore points to Jodar as the favourite, but not by enough to dismiss upset risk; a 73% line still leaves roughly three chances in ten for Moutet if the market is efficient. [3][9]

The historical frame is thin because the pair have no prior head-to-head, so traders have to lean on comparable profile data rather than matchup history. [2][4][5] Jodar’s 2026 results are materially stronger, with one source showing a 43-13 year record versus Moutet’s 10-18, and Jodar also grades better on hard courts in current-season splits. [1] That said, Moutet’s experience edge is substantial: he is the older, more established ATP player, with a career-high ranking of 31 and a long tour sample, whereas Jodar is still early in his career. [4][9] The value angle is therefore two-sided: Jodar remains the consensus side, but Moutet is the cleaner contrarian if you expect rankings, experience and tour-level resistance to matter more than raw recent form. [4][9]

The main catalyst is simple: whether the match actually starts and reaches a completed result before the market’s settlement rules bite. The market resolves to 50-50 if the match is not played, is tied, or is delayed more than seven days, so scheduling changes matter as much as performance. The tennis.com listing shows the second-round match in Montréal with Jodar projected on the same day, and TenniSTemple also frames it as the upcoming meeting after Moutet advanced in the draw. [6][9][15] For traders, the practical watchpoints are order-of-play updates, any late withdrawal news, and whether the event’s court schedule slips because of weather or backlog. [6][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.