Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 1 Winner | 90% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 90% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane | 60% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 38.5 | 59% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 2 Winner | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Game Spread +/-3.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 3 Winner | 49% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 40.5 | 49% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 7% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 90% YES probability for US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane. This market refers to the tennis match between Jaume Munar and Terence Atmane in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jaume Munar' if …
Methodology
We track US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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