Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
70% | 30% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
70% | 30% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo | 70% |
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 21.5 | 68% |
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 65% |
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 Winner | 62% |
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 22.5 | 56% |
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 43% |
Market context
Market consensus: 70% chance of swedish open: andrey rublev vs alejandro tabilo. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Andrey Rublev and Alejandro Tabilo in the Swedish Open, originally scheduled for July 18, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page reviews Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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