Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| América FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Londrina EC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| América FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Londrina EC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| América FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Londrina EC (-1.5) | 0% |
| América FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Londrina EC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| América FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| América FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Londrina EC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Londrina EC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| América FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Londrina EC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Londrina EC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| América FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| América FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Londrina EC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Brasil Serie B hosts a fixture between América FC and Londrina EC on 13 July at 6:00 PM ET. The market currently reflects a 0% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting either extreme consensus or insufficient liquidity for secondary betting options on this match.
Historical precedent in Brazilian second-division fixtures shows that liquidity for ancillary markets—goal-scorer props, corner totals, card counts—typically materialises only when primary match-outcome markets reach sufficient volume. Serie B matches, whilst competitive, often draw lighter trading activity than top-flight fixtures, particularly for markets beyond win-draw-loss. The 0% reading likely reflects absence of trader interest rather than genuine belief that no additional markets will be offered; comparable mid-table Serie B matchups have historically seen supplementary markets added within 48 hours of kickoff if the underlying event generates sufficient engagement.
Traders should monitor fixture confirmation and any late team news affecting squad availability, as these factors influence whether bookmakers perceive sufficient demand to justify market expansion. The settlement window closes shortly after the scheduled kickoff, leaving minimal window for market additions post-match. Any announcement regarding injury withdrawals or lineup changes in the 24 hours preceding the match could shift perception of match significance and thus secondary-market appetite. Current odds reflect a market still awaiting catalyst; early action on primary outcomes often precedes secondary-market rollout.
Methodology
We track América FC vs. Londrina EC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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