Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| O/U 36.5 | 92% |
| Utah 1H O/U 14.5 | 91% |
| Spread -1.5 | 90% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 89% |
| Spread -2.5 | 88% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 88% |
| Spread -3.5 | 87% |
| Spread -4.5 | 86% |
| Spread -5.5 | 84% |
| O/U 42.5 | 83% |
| Utah O/U 27.5 | 83% |
| Spread -6.5 | 81% |
| Spread -7.5 | 80% |
| O/U 38.5 | 76% |
| Spread: Utah (-9.5) | 75% |
| Utah O/U 30.5 | 75% |
| O/U 40.5 | 74% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 74% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 73% |
| Spread -10.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 71% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 71% |
| Spread -11.5 | 70% |
| O/U 44.5 | 70% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 69% |
| O/U 48.5 | 68% |
| O/U 46.5 | 67% |
| Spread -8.5 | 66% |
| Spread -12.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| Spread -13.5 | 63% |
| Utah O/U 37.5 | 62% |
| Spread -14.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 60% |
| Spread -15.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| O/U 50.5 | 58% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| Utah O/U 34.5 | 55% |
| Spread -16.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 54% |
| O/U 52.5 | 53% |
| Arkansas O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| Spread -18.5 | 52% |
| Spread -17.5 | 51% |
| O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Wayshawn Parker: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Devon Dampier: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Braden Pegan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Braylen Russell: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Sutton Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Marshall: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| KJ Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ricky Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaden Platt: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Daniel Bray: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Larry Simmons: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| CJ Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Donovan Faupel: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jamari Hawkins: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Utah O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Utah O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Utah O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Utah 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Utah 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Utah 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Utah O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Utah O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Utah O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Utah 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Utah 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Byrd Ficklin: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Steve Chavez-Soto: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Hunter Andrews: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Noah Bennee: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Creed Whittemore: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cam Settles: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ismael Cisse: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kyri Shoels: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jelani Watkins: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Utah 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Utah 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Utah 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| Arkansas O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Spread -19.5 | 48% |
| Utah O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Spread -22.5 | 45% |
| O/U 55.5 | 43% |
| Spread -20.5 | 40% |
| Spread -21.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| O/U 56.5 | 39% |
| Arkansas O/U 23.5 | 38% |
| Spread -25.5 | 38% |
| Spread -26.5 | 38% |
| O/U 57.5 | 37% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 37% |
| O/U 58.5 | 36% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| Spread -31.5 | 33% |
| O/U 62.5 | 33% |
| Arkansas O/U 21.5 | 33% |
| Spread -28.5 | 33% |
| Spread -29.5 | 33% |
| O/U 64.5 | 32% |
| Spread -32.5 | 32% |
| O/U 68.5 | 31% |
| O/U 70.5 | 31% |
| O/U 60.5 | 30% |
| O/U 74.5 | 30% |
| Spread -24.5 | 28% |
| O/U 76.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 27% |
| Spread -27.5 | 21% |
| O/U 66.5 | 17% |
| Arkansas vs. Utah | 10% |
| O/U 72.5 | 8% |
| Spread -1.5 | 7% |
| Spread -2.5 | 5% |
| Spread -4.5 | 4% |
| Spread -5.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
Market context
Arkansas vs. Utah — current market-implied probability: 100%. In the upcoming college football game between Arkansas and Utah, scheduled for September 12 at 10:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arkansas" if Arkansas win the game. This market will resolve to …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $162K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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