Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -1.5 | 92% |
| Spread -4.5 | 88% |
| Spread -5.5 | 83% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 80% |
| Spread -7.5 | 79% |
| O/U 29.5 | 75% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 75% |
| Spread -8.5 | 74% |
| O/U 31.5 | 73% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 71% |
| O/U 33.5 | 69% |
| Spread -11.5 | 68% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| O/U 35.5 | 66% |
| Spread -13.5 | 64% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 62% |
| Spread -14.5 | 61% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 61% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| O/U 37.5 | 60% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 59% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| Spread -16.5 | 55% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| Spread -15.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| Spread -17.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| O/U 39.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Indiana O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Indiana O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Indiana O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Indiana O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| O/U 43.5 | 48% |
| O/U 41.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| Spread -19.5 | 43% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Spread -20.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Spread -21.5 | 38% |
| Indiana 1H O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| Northwestern O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| Spread -22.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| O/U 45.5 | 33% |
| Spread -23.5 | 32% |
| Spread -24.5 | 31% |
| O/U 59.5 | 31% |
| O/U 61.5 | 30% |
| O/U 67.5 | 30% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Indiana O/U 34.5 | 29% |
| O/U 65.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| Spread -25.5 | 27% |
| Spread -26.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| O/U 47.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 26% |
| O/U 53.5 | 25% |
| Northwestern O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 24% |
| Spread -27.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| Spread -29.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 20% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| Spread -28.5 | 19% |
| O/U 49.5 | 19% |
| Indiana O/U 37.5 | 19% |
| Northwestern O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Spread -30.5 | 17% |
| O/U 55.5 | 17% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 17% |
| O/U 51.5 | 16% |
| Spread -32.5 | 15% |
| Spread -35.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 10% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 10% |
| Spread -36.5 | 9% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana | 8% |
| O/U 57.5 | 8% |
| Spread -38.5 | 7% |
| Spread -39.5 | 7% |
| Spread -42.5 | 7% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 6% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 6% |
| O/U 63.5 | 5% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 3% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 3% |
| O/U 69.5 | 2% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 2% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 2% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 2% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 2% |
Market context
Northwestern vs. Indiana. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 7% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-26T00:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $776K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Northwestern vs. Indiana on Who Will Win 2026
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →