Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -17.5 | 97% |
| Spread -20.5 | 96% |
| Spread -21.5 | 96% |
| Spread -23.5 | 96% |
| Spread -7.5 | 95% |
| O/U 34.5 | 95% |
| Spread -4.5 | 94% |
| Spread -13.5 | 94% |
| O/U 36.5 | 94% |
| Spread -26.5 | 94% |
| Spread -16.5 | 93% |
| Spread -24.5 | 93% |
| Spread -5.5 | 91% |
| O/U 38.5 | 91% |
| Spread -14.5 | 90% |
| Spread -27.5 | 90% |
| O/U 40.5 | 89% |
| Spread -29.5 | 87% |
| Spread -30.5 | 87% |
| Spread -8.5 | 85% |
| O/U 42.5 | 84% |
| Spread -31.5 | 83% |
| Spread -33.5 | 81% |
| O/U 44.5 | 80% |
| Spread -34.5 | 78% |
| O/U 46.5 | 76% |
| Spread -35.5 | 75% |
| Spread -10.5 | 73% |
| Rice O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| Spread -36.5 | 73% |
| Rice O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| Rice O/U 2.5 | 72% |
| Notre Dame O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| Notre Dame O/U 43.5 | 71% |
| Spread -37.5 | 71% |
| Spread -6.5 | 70% |
| Spread -38.5 | 68% |
| O/U 48.5 | 67% |
| Spread -39.5 | 65% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 64% |
| O/U 50.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 63% |
| Notre Dame O/U 45.5 | 63% |
| Spread -40.5 | 63% |
| Spread -0.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 62% |
| Notre Dame O/U 46.5 | 62% |
| Spread -41.5 | 62% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 61% |
| O/U 52.5 | 56% |
| O/U 53.5 | 56% |
| Notre Dame O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| Spread -42.5 | 56% |
| O/U 54.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -24.5 | 55% |
| Spread -43.5 | 55% |
| Spread -44.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -26.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -18.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -16.5 | 52% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 2H Spread -19.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Micah Gilbert: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Rice O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Ben Grice: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Rice O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rice O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rice O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Rice O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -27.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| Rice 1H O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Aneyas Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Faison: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nolan James Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| CJ Carr: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cooper Flanagan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kedren Young: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaden Greathouse: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mylan Graham: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| James Flanigan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tyvonn Byars: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jacurri Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Braylen Walker: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Payton Matthews: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Elijah Burress: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Matt Jeffery: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| DAndre Hardeman Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Davis Lane Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Carson Morgan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Max Mosey: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Rice 1H O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rice 1H O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Rice 1H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 49.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Rice O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Spread -45.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| Notre Dame 1H O/U 30.5 | 46% |
| Notre Dame O/U 51.5 | 46% |
| O/U 56.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 45% |
| Spread -46.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| Rice O/U 6.5 | 44% |
| Rice 1H O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -47.5 | 43% |
| Rice O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| O/U 58.5 | 39% |
| Notre Dame O/U 52.5 | 39% |
| Spread -48.5 | 39% |
| Notre Dame O/U 54.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -28.5 | 37% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -29.5 | 36% |
| O/U 60.5 | 35% |
| Spread -49.5 | 35% |
| Notre Dame O/U 55.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 34% |
| Spread -50.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -22.5 | 33% |
| Spread -51.5 | 31% |
| O/U 62.5 | 28% |
| Spread -52.5 | 28% |
| Rice O/U 8.5 | 26% |
| Rice O/U 7.5 | 26% |
| O/U 64.5 | 24% |
| Spread -54.5 | 24% |
| Rice O/U 9.5 | 24% |
| O/U 66.5 | 18% |
| Spread -57.5 | 18% |
| O/U 68.5 | 17% |
| Spread -58.5 | 16% |
| Rice O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Rice O/U 10.5 | 14% |
| Rice O/U 12.5 | 13% |
| O/U 70.5 | 12% |
| Spread -60.5 | 12% |
| Spread -61.5 | 11% |
| O/U 72.5 | 10% |
| O/U 74.5 | 8% |
| Spread -64.5 | 6% |
| Rice vs. Notre Dame | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 97% YES probability for Rice vs. Notre Dame. In the upcoming college football game between Rice and Notre Dame, scheduled for September 12 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Rice" if Rice win the game. This market will resolve to "Notre …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $115K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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