1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

1. FC Köln meet Real Sociedad in a club friendly, and the market’s **0% YES** price means the listed exact scoreline is effectively dismissed by the crowd. In handicapper terms, that leaves the more likely read as a modest-scoring game with the **favourite** angle sitting with Real Sociedad, while Köln retain enough home-field and friendly volatility to keep upset and draw cases alive. Recent form snapshots point to both sides being capable of scoring and conceding: Köln’s last five listed results include a 2-2 draw, an 8-0 win and a 5-1 defeat, while Real Sociedad’s sequence includes a 2-1 loss to Toulouse, a 4-2 win over Aston Villa and a 2-1 win at Wolves.[1][5]

Historically, this kind of friendly is read less like a rigid league fixture and more like a rotation test, which widens score dispersion and makes exact-score markets vulnerable to late line-up changes. Head-to-head history is thin but not one-sided: UEFA’s record shows one Köln win, one draw and one Real Sociedad win in their European meetings, with three goals each across the tie, which fits the broader pattern of a competitive but not heavily separated match-up.[13] The consensus value is usually not on a named exact score unless team news narrows the range sharply; if the market is pricing a specific score at 0%, the contrarian case is often that the true value sits in a common one-goal or one-all outcome rather than the excluded line.

The main catalysts are team announcements, confirmed rotation, and whether either side treats the game as a final tune-up or a heavier workload session. Real Sociedad’s recent fixture list already includes a 7/31 away match against Toulouse and Köln’s included a 7/31 home draw with Hertha BSC, so the schedule density around this friendly matters for minutes and substitutions.[1][10] Traders should watch for late squad news, goalkeeper selection, and whether either club carries injuries or youth call-ups, because those factors can move the favourite/underdog balance more than the headline badge strength in a pre-season setting.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How fast are USDC deposits?

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On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.