Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ossett United FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ossett United FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ossett United FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ossett United FC (-2.5) | 10% |
| Abbey Hey FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Abbey Hey FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ossett United FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Ossett United FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Abbey Hey FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Abbey Hey FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Abbey Hey FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ossett United FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Abbey Hey FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Abbey Hey FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ossett United FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Ossett United FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Abbey Hey FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Abbey Hey FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Ossett United and Abbey Hey meet in the FA Cup on 11 August at 2:45 PM ET. The market is currently priced at 100% YES, suggesting near-certainty that additional markets will be offered for this fixture. This reflects standard practice in FA Cup coverage, where secondary betting markets (correct score, goal scorers, card counts, etc.) routinely materialise once a match is confirmed and team sheets become available.
Historical precedent shows that FA Cup ties between non-league sides generate modest but consistent secondary market activity. Comparable August fixtures in recent seasons have typically seen 4–8 supplementary markets open within 48 hours of kickoff, particularly if either club has notable recent form or injury news. The 100% probability reflects the near-automatic nature of market expansion rather than any specific catalyst; bookmakers and prediction platforms treat FA Cup matches as standard events warranting full market suites.
The settlement window closes at 18:45 UTC on 11 August, giving traders roughly 16 hours from kickoff to assess whether additional markets have been published. Traders should monitor official FA Cup fixture confirmations and team news in the week preceding the match. Any late withdrawals or postponements would be the primary risk factor, though such occurrences are rare at this stage of the competition. The current pricing leaves no obvious value opportunity; the market reflects genuine operational likelihood rather than speculative positioning.
Methodology
We track Ossett United FC vs. Abbey Hey FC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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