Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 75% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 74% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 74% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 59% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ shots | 58% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 54% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Yassine Bounou: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Issa Diop: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Chadi Riad: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Issa Diop: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noussair Mazraoui: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Yassine Bounou: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Yassine Bounou: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Yassine Bounou: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 3+ shots | 46% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 46% |
| Chadi Riad: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 37% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 30% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 29% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Noussair Mazraoui: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Issa Diop: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Chadi Riad: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 16% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots | 15% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Jules Koundé: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Noussair Mazraoui: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Gessime Yassine: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Chemsdine Talbi: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Gessime Yassine: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
The France vs. Morocco - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 85% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Morocco, scheduled for July 9 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track France vs. Morocco - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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