Haiti vs. Scotland - More Markets

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Market context

FIFA World Cup 2026 will feature a qualifying match between Haiti and Scotland on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market is pricing this as a binary outcome with no meaningful probability assigned to the affirmative position. Given the settlement window closes on 14 June at 01:00 UTC, traders have approximately 16 hours post-kickoff to assess the result.

Haiti's World Cup pedigree remains limited; their sole prior appearance was 1974. Scotland, conversely, qualified for 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986, and 1990, though they have not reached a World Cup since 1998. In competitive fixtures between these nations, Scotland holds a decisive historical advantage. The 0% probability reflects consensus confidence in Scotland's superiority, yet such extreme probabilities often mask execution risk—weather delays, injury announcements, or unexpected team selection changes can shift market perception sharply in the hours before kickoff.

Recent squad announcements and injury reports from both federations will be critical catalysts. Scotland's availability of key midfield and defensive personnel, particularly given fixture congestion in the weeks preceding this match, warrants close monitoring. Haiti's preparation depth and any late withdrawals could equally move the needle. The market's current extreme positioning leaves little room for contrarian value unless new information emerges regarding team readiness or tactical surprises. Traders should watch official team sheets released 24 hours before kickoff for any shifts that might justify repricing away from the consensus floor.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.