Norway vs. England - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

On Saturday 11 July 2026 at 5pm EDT, Norway and England will meet in the FIFA World Cup quarter-final, a clash defined by Erling Haaland’s historic brace against Brazil and Harry Kane’s penalty in England’s 3-2 win over Mexico[1][3]. This is Norway’s first-ever World Cup knockout victory, having beaten Brazil 2-1, while England seeks their first trophy in 60 years after overcoming Mexico in the legendary Azteca Stadium[2][4]. Historically, the two nations have only met in four friendlies (1937–1966), all won by England with an aggregate score of 20-0, but Norway’s recent knockout form and Haaland’s goal-scoring dominance frame this as a genuine underdog value spot rather than a mere favourite[8].

The market currently implies a 7% YES probability for an exact score outcome, suggesting the consensus leans heavily toward “Any Other Score” due to the volatility of knockout football and the defensive resilience both teams displayed in their previous matches[1]. Contrarian value may sit in specific low-scoring outcomes like 1-0 or 1-1, as Haaland’s clinical finishing and Kane’s experience in tight games often produce narrow margins, yet the crowd’s caution reflects the unpredictability of a match between two teams with contrasting knockout narratives[2][5]. Traders should monitor final squad announcements for injury updates on key defenders and the official referee assignment, as recent reports note Haaland’s impact has already cost FIFA millions in betting adjustments ahead of this fixture[5].

Key catalysts include the confirmed venue details and any late tactical shifts from both managers, with England’s 10-man performance against Mexico highlighting their adaptability under pressure[3]. Norway’s historic run, advancing to the quarter-finals for the first time after 28 years, adds psychological weight that could influence their approach, while England’s quest for a first trophy in 60 years may drive a more conservative strategy[10]. With the settlement window ending at 21:00:00Z on 11 July, the focus remains on the 90-minute regulation result, excluding extra time and penalties, making precise score predictions a high-risk, high-value proposition for those who can identify where the consensus overcorrects[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.