Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Sweden and Tunisia meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June at 10:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 7% implied probability, reflecting the difficulty of pinpointing a precise final result across 90 minutes of regulation play. Settlement occurs at 02:00 UTC on 15 June, immediately after the fixture concludes.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in World Cup group matches typically cluster around 5–10% for any single scoreline when multiple outcomes exist. Sweden's recent tournament record shows they've produced varied attacking outputs: their 2022 World Cup group stage featured a 2–0 win and a 2–1 loss, whilst their Euro 2024 campaign included a 1–0 defeat and a 1–1 draw. Tunisia, conversely, has struggled to generate consistent scoring volume in recent tournaments, managing only one goal across three matches at the 2022 World Cup. The 7% probability here sits near the baseline for group-stage exacta pricing, suggesting the crowd has not yet identified a particular scoreline as significantly more or less likely than others.

Traders should monitor team news through early June, particularly injury updates affecting either squad's attacking personnel. Sweden's squad depth in midfield and Tunisia's defensive stability will shape expected goal ranges. Fixture congestion in the days preceding this match—both teams' prior group encounters—could influence fatigue levels and tactical approach. Qualification scenarios emerging from concurrent group matches may also alter how aggressively either side pursues goals in the final stages, potentially affecting the distribution of plausible scorelines.

Methodology

This page reviews Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win 2026 — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.