Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Yokohama FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Yokohama FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Yokohama FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Yokohama FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Júbilo Iwata O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Yokohama FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Yokohama FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Yokohama FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Júbilo Iwata 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Júbilo Iwata (-1.5) | 0% |
| Yokohama FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Júbilo Iwata (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Júbilo Iwata O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Júbilo Iwata O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Yokohama FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Júbilo Iwata 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Júbilo Iwata 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Júbilo Iwata 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Yokohama FC and Júbilo Iwata meet in the J2 League on 16 August 2026, with the market currently priced at 100% YES for additional markets to be offered on this fixture. The settlement window closes at 09:00 UTC on that date, which aligns with the scheduled 05:00 ET kick-off. This is a standard domestic league match in Japan's second tier, where both clubs have established followings and regular media coverage.
The 100% implied probability reflects a near-certainty that supplementary betting markets will exist for this J2 League encounter. Historical precedent supports this: major Japanese football fixtures routinely attract multiple market offerings across Asian and international platforms, particularly when both teams carry reasonable brand recognition. Yokohama FC and Júbilo Iwata are mid-tier J2 sides with consistent fixture schedules and documented betting interest. The consensus pricing leaves minimal room for disagreement—essentially, traders are unified that additional markets will materialise.
Value considerations hinge on whether the settlement criteria are sufficiently defined. If the market definition requires specific market types (goal totals, both teams to score, handicap lines) rather than merely "any additional market," the certainty may be overstated. Traders should verify whether the settlement authority has published fixture-specific market availability schedules ahead of 16 August. Japanese domestic league coverage from local sportsbooks and international operators typically confirms market breadth 48–72 hours before kick-off, providing a concrete data point for reassessing the current pricing.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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