Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| FC Anyang 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| FC Anyang 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Anyang (-1.5) | 37% |
| O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 (-1.5) | 9% |
| FC Anyang (-2.5) | 9% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 (-2.5) | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Anyang 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Bucheon FC 1995 meet FC Anyang in a K-League 1 fixture that the market is pricing as a low-conviction add-on, with the crowd-implied probability at **9% YES**. That is well below what the pre-match 1X2 prices suggest for the underlying game: telefootball’s average odds imply a fairly even contest, with Anyang a marginal favourite at 2.45, the draw at 3.10 and Bucheon at 2.88, while one pre-match model pegs Anyang’s win chance at 38.5%, Bucheon at 32.8% and the draw at 28.7%[2][4]. For a “More Markets” position, that usually means the consensus sits around a tight, low-scoring match rather than a runaway result, so the value case is typically on contrarian derivatives if the market is over-discounting variance, rather than on the obvious favourite-side narrative[2][4][6].
Historical framing points to a match-up that can suppress conviction because recent comparable previews describe it as a coin flip or a narrow, gritty game, and the head-to-head record in May also produced a Bucheon win by a single goal[6][8]. Recent live and fixture listings confirm the game is scheduled for 22 July, with no strong public prediction consensus from some fixture services, which is consistent with a market that can swing on late team news rather than broad team quality alone[1][3]. The main catalysts to watch are confirmed line-ups, any rotation or injury disclosure before kick-off, and whether either side approaches it conservatively in a mid-table type set-up; if Anyang are priced as slight favourites but team news softens that edge, the contrarian angle shifts towards Bucheon-friendly or draw-linked secondary markets[2][4][6].
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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