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LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

How the prediction-market book is pricing "LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Match Winner 85% Game 1 Winner 71% Game 2 Winner 71% Game 3 Winner 70% Volume: $108K Liquidity: $714K Closes: 13 Sept 2026
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LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 85% 15% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 85% 15% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner85%
Game 1 Winner71%
Game 2 Winner71%
Game 3 Winner70%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)70%
Game 4 Winner63%
O/U 3.5 Games60%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?56%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?55%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
First Blood in Game 4?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?44%
Game Handicap: C9 (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)41%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?39%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
O/U 4.5 Games23%
Any Player Penta Kill10%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: cloud9 vs shopify rebellion (bo5) - lcs playoffs stands at 85% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Cloud9 and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.…

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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