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LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Both Teams Slay a Dragon 71% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 71% Any Player Penta Kill 57% Any Player Quadra Kill 53% Volume: $201K Liquidity: $739K Closes: 2 Aug 2026
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LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
71% 29% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
71% 29% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Both Teams Slay a Dragon71%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon71%
Any Player Penta Kill57%
Any Player Quadra Kill53%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
O/U 2.5 Games46%
Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)44%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon42%
Game 1 Winner36%
Game 2 Winner34%
Match Winner30%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill25%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor17%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor17%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors13%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors13%

Market context

DN SOOPers meet HANJIN BRION in an LCK Rise Group best-of-three, and the market’s **36% yes** implies DN SOOPers are the underdog with HANJIN BRION favoured on the current consensus. The scoreline context matters: LCK Rounds 3-4 are played in a double round-robin Rise Group, with records carried over and the bottom two eventually eliminated, so this is one of the games that still has direct table impact rather than being a dead rubber.[4][9]

The historical read is mixed. Public match pages point to HANJIN BRION having the stronger overall head-to-head profile, but also note that recent series between these sides have been competitive and often decided by mid-jungle execution rather than raw lane strength.[1][16] That combination usually supports a modest favourite price rather than a runaway number: the consensus side is BRION, but a 36% DN SOOPers line leaves some room for traders looking for a contrarian angle if they rate recent form, draft adaptation or patch comfort more highly than the broader series record.[1][10]

For catalysts, the main watch-items are the confirmed start time, any last-minute schedule change, and whether both teams field the expected rosters on the day. Tournament listings place the match at 08:00 UTC / 4:00AM ET, while LCK’s Rounds 3-4 are running through late July and August in Bo3 format, so any delay or technical issue that pushes completion outside the market’s settlement window would matter materially.[2][4][6] Recent schedule pages also show this fixture sitting inside a tight weekly slate, which makes postponement less likely than a simple venue or broadcast slip, but live score and official schedule confirmation remain the key checks before settlement.[6][20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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