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LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Both Teams Slay a Dragon 77% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 77% Any Player Penta Kill 53% Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor 51% Volume: $91K Liquidity: $682K Closes: 29 Jul 2026
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LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
77% 23% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
77% 23% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Both Teams Slay a Dragon77%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon77%
Any Player Penta Kill53%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
First Blood in Game 1?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
O/U 2.5 Games49%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?49%
Game 1 Winner48%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?48%
Game 2 Winner47%
Match Winner47%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon42%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5)30%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Penta Kill25%
Any Player Penta Kill25%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor18%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor18%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors14%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors14%

Market context

The LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend prediction market currently prices this outcome at 77% YES. This market refers to the LoL match between Top Esports and Anyone's Legend in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for July 29 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esp…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
and

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