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LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs paiN Gaming (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs

How the prediction-market book is pricing "LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs paiN Gaming (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Game 1 Winner 100% O/U 3.5 Games 100% First Blood in Game 1? 100% Game Handicap: PNG (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) 100% Volume: $645K Liquidity: $1.2M Closes: 5 Sept 2026
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LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs paiN Gaming (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
O/U 3.5 Games100%
First Blood in Game 1?100%
Game Handicap: PNG (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5)100%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon75%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 3?51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
First Blood in Game 4?49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor48%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor48%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor48%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors48%
Odd/Even Total Kills47%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?43%
First Blood in Game 3?42%
Game 2 Winner0%
Game 3 Winner0%
Game 4 Winner0%
Match Winner0%
O/U 4.5 Games0%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor0%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon0%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors0%
Any Player Quadra Kill0%
Any Player Penta Kill0%
Odd/Even Total Kills0%
Game Handicap: VKS (-2.5) vs paiN Gaming (+2.5)0%
Game Handicap: VKS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5)0%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2?0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs paiN Gaming (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Upper Bracket Quarterfinals 2 match between Vivo Keyd Stars and paiN Gaming in the CBLOL Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market …

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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