Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming MLB clash on 25 June between the Athletics and San Francisco Giants, played at 3:45pm ET, has already concluded with the Athletics securing a 9–6 victory. This result renders the prediction market titled "Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants" a settled event where the crowd-implied probability of 100% YES for the Athletics is now factually confirmed rather than speculative.

Historically, when a market reaches 100% implied probability before settlement, it typically signals either a completed game or an insurmountable favourite; in this case, the Athletics' superior away record (21–19) and offensive output (15 hits) against the Giants' struggling home form (16–21) framed the outcome as a clear value spot for the underdog Athletics, who were priced at +109 on the moneyline[2]. Comparable cases in MLB where the away team dominated despite a lower moneyline often see contrarian traders missing the value, as the Giants' pitching, led by Landen Roupp (4.07 ERA), failed to contain the Athletics' lineup, resulting in a decisive win that validated the consensus[1].

Traders should monitor official final statistics recognised by the MLB governing body for resolution, though the game is already complete with the Athletics winning 9–6[4]. Recent coverage confirms the final score and highlights, noting the Athletics' strong performance and the Giants' inability to recover after a fifth-inning deficit[5]. With the settlement window ending on 2 July 2026, no further announcements or schedule dependencies remain relevant, as the outcome is fixed and the market has resolved definitively to the Athletics.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.