CD Los Chankas vs. Sport Boys Association - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Peru Liga 1’s Clausura round saw CD Los Chankas defeat Sport Boys Association 1–0 at Estadio Los Chankas on Sunday, 19 July 2026, with the match finishing under the 2.5-goal total and confirming Los Chankas as the narrow home favourite [2][3]. The prediction market titled “More Markets” for this fixture now carries a 0% YES crowd-implied probability, reflecting that the game has already concluded and all outcome-dependent sub-markets are settled [1].

Historically, when a Peru Liga 1 match ends before the settlement window closes, secondary markets (such as over/under goals, exact score, or player props) collapse to zero probability once the final result is confirmed, as no further uncertainty remains [3]. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 Clausura seasons show that traders who held positions after the final whistle faced automatic liquidation, with consensus shifting instantly to 0% for any unmet condition [2]. In this instance, the 1–0 scoreline means any market requiring two or more goals, a Sport Boys win, or a draw is definitively out.

The only catalyst a trader should monitor is the official confirmation of the result by the Peruvian Football Association, which has already been published by ESPN and ScoreStrike as final [1][2]. No further announcements, schedule changes, or dependencies apply, as the match is complete and the settlement window ending 2026-07-19T16:00:00Z has passed relative to the actual game time [1]. With the result locked, there is no value spot or contrarian angle; the 0% probability is not a mispricing but a factual reflection of a settled event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.